【翻譯練習】美國人離婚率是下降了，原因卻不怎麼令人振奮
The Not-So-Great Reason Divorce Rates Are Declining
作者：Joe Pinsker
來源：https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2018/09/millennials-divorce-baby-boomers/571282/
變了的不是婚姻型態，而是哪種人最有可能結婚。
2008 年以來，美國的離婚率呈下降走勢，馬里蘭大學社會學教授菲利浦．柯漢 (Philip Cohen) 在其論文提出具體數字：2008 年至 2016 年間，離婚率整體下降了 18%。
柯漢計入這段期間美國人平均結婚年齡增加以及其他人口轉型因素後，得出的結果是「離婚率下降 8%，降幅較不劇烈，但模式是一樣的」。換言之，假設 2016 年的已婚者人口統計資料跟 2008 年一樣，2016 年的離婚率依然低於預期。
我詢問約翰霍普金斯大學社會學教授安德魯．切爾林 (Andrew Cherlin) 該如何看待這股趨勢，他用了一段公案作為開場白：「如果你想離婚，首先你得先結婚。」
切爾林想強調的重點是，現在大學畢業者比起最多高中學歷者更有機會結婚。切爾林說，理解離婚率下降的關鍵在於「每種人口的離婚率或多或少都有下降」，不過「大學畢業者的離婚率降幅最大」。
背後的確切原因大學畢業者把重心放在職涯發展上，於是他們較不急於結婚成家，而且大學畢業者往往可以實現財務自由，所以他們會等到對財務自由程度更有信心的時候，再來考慮結婚。種種因素造就出離婚率下降的結果，切爾林說：「年紀愈長，心態愈成熟……或許你也有了一份更理想的工作，這些條件加總起來，讓你比較不會跟配偶發生爭執。」
19 世紀中葉起，離婚率便一路增加，部分原因出在切爾林所述的「愈來愈多人覺得，婚姻不幸福的話，離婚就好，這沒什麼大不了」。二戰後的離婚率更是迅速攀升，1980 年達到高峰。
切爾林說，在他取得博士學位的 1970 年代末期，研究者普遍預估離婚率還會繼續上升；然而現實的演變並不如預期，而且還有超乎預期的發展：學歷較低的美國人出現了結婚數減少、以及與之相應的同居數增加的趨勢。社會學教授維克托．陳 (Victor Chen) 在給《大西洋雜誌》的投書裡指出，幾十年前，與大學畢業者相比，非大學學歷者 30 歲前結婚的比例明顯較高；到了 2018 年，「40 歲出頭的高中以下學歷女性當中，已婚者只占二分之一多，而 40 歲出頭的學士學歷女性，已婚者則占四分之三。」
陳教授認為，這種趨勢與不具大學學歷者的高薪工作減少有關，累積財富的機會減少，他們就更不容易建立較穩定的關係。柯漢確實也在其論文寫道，婚姻「是社會不平等結構當中愈趨顯著的核心要點」。當前的婚姻現況，不僅呈現出大學學歷創造了財務獨立的契機，也突顯了高學歷夫妻收入相加後，匯聚成一股拉開貧富差距的力量。
所以，光是觀察已婚伴侶的情形，尚不足以掌握美國人婚姻關係的實際本質。切爾林說：「假如把同居關係 (跟婚姻關係) 一起算進來，年輕人和伴侶分開的比例或許並沒有下降。」也就表示：對，離婚率是下降了沒有錯，但是與其說這現象代表美國夫妻關係趨向穩定，不如說這些數字只有反映出已婚者的樣貌。
What's changed isn't marriage, but the types of people who are likeliest to get married.
Since 2008, the percentage of American marriages that end in divorce has fallen, and in this paper, the University of Maryland sociologist Philip Cohen has quantified the drop-off: Between 2008 and 2016, the divorce rate declined by 18 percent overall.
After accounting for the rising average age of married Americans and other demographic shifts during that time, Cohen found "a less steep decline—8 percent—but the pattern is the same." That is, the divorce rate in 2016 was still lower than one would have predicted if the demographics of married people were the same then as in 2008.
When I asked Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University, how to make sense of this trend, he opened his explanation with something of a koan: "In order to get divorced," he said, "you have to get married first."
The point he was making was that people with college degrees are now more likely to get married than those who have no more than a high-school education. And the key to understanding the declining divorce rate, Cherlin says, is that it is "going down some for everybody," but "the decline has been steepest for the college graduates."
The reason that's the case is that college graduates tend to wait longer to get married as they focus on their career. And they tend to have the financial independence to postpone marriage until they're more confident it will work. This has translated to lower rates of divorce: "If you're older, you're more mature … you probably have a better job, and those things make it less likely that you'll get into arguments with your spouse," Cherlin says.
Divorce rates had been increasing since the mid-1800s, in part because of what Cherlin described as "a gradual growth in the sense that it was okay to end a marriage if you're unhappy." Divorces spiked after World War II, peaking in 1980.
Cherlin says that in the late 1970s, when he received his Ph.D., it was widely expected among researchers that the divorce rate would continue to rise. But it hasn't, and what's behind this unforeseen development is the decline of marriage—and the corresponding rise of cohabitation—among Americans with less education. As the sociologist Victor Chen wrote for The Atlantic, those without college degrees were a few decades ago significantly likelier to be married by age 30 than were those with college degrees. In 2018, Chen notes, "just over half of women in their early 40s with a high-school degree or less education are married, compared to three-quarters of women with a bachelor's degree."
Chen connects this trend to the decline of well-paying jobs for those without college degrees, which, he argues, makes it harder to form more stable relationships. Indeed, Cohen writes in his paper that marriage is "an increasingly central component of the structure of social inequality." The state of it today is both a reflection of the opportunities unlocked by a college degree and a force that, by allowing couples to pool their incomes, itself widens economic gaps.
So, looking at married couples alone doesn't capture the true nature of American partnerships today. "If you were to include cohabiting relationships [in addition to marriages], the breakup rates for young adults have probably not been going down," Cherlin says. In other words: Yes, divorce rates are declining. But that's more a reflection of who's getting married than of the stability of any given American couple.
作者：Joe Pinsker
來源：https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2018/09/millennials-divorce-baby-boomers/571282/
變了的不是婚姻型態，而是哪種人最有可能結婚。
2008 年以來，美國的離婚率呈下降走勢，馬里蘭大學社會學教授菲利浦．柯漢 (Philip Cohen) 在其論文提出具體數字：2008 年至 2016 年間，離婚率整體下降了 18%。
柯漢計入這段期間美國人平均結婚年齡增加以及其他人口轉型因素後，得出的結果是「離婚率下降 8%，降幅較不劇烈，但模式是一樣的」。換言之，假設 2016 年的已婚者人口統計資料跟 2008 年一樣，2016 年的離婚率依然低於預期。
我詢問約翰霍普金斯大學社會學教授安德魯．切爾林 (Andrew Cherlin) 該如何看待這股趨勢，他用了一段公案作為開場白：「如果你想離婚，首先你得先結婚。」
切爾林想強調的重點是，現在大學畢業者比起最多高中學歷者更有機會結婚。切爾林說，理解離婚率下降的關鍵在於「每種人口的離婚率或多或少都有下降」，不過「大學畢業者的離婚率降幅最大」。
背後的確切原因大學畢業者把重心放在職涯發展上，於是他們較不急於結婚成家，而且大學畢業者往往可以實現財務自由，所以他們會等到對財務自由程度更有信心的時候，再來考慮結婚。種種因素造就出離婚率下降的結果，切爾林說：「年紀愈長，心態愈成熟……或許你也有了一份更理想的工作，這些條件加總起來，讓你比較不會跟配偶發生爭執。」
19 世紀中葉起，離婚率便一路增加，部分原因出在切爾林所述的「愈來愈多人覺得，婚姻不幸福的話，離婚就好，這沒什麼大不了」。二戰後的離婚率更是迅速攀升，1980 年達到高峰。
切爾林說，在他取得博士學位的 1970 年代末期，研究者普遍預估離婚率還會繼續上升；然而現實的演變並不如預期，而且還有超乎預期的發展：學歷較低的美國人出現了結婚數減少、以及與之相應的同居數增加的趨勢。社會學教授維克托．陳 (Victor Chen) 在給《大西洋雜誌》的投書裡指出，幾十年前，與大學畢業者相比，非大學學歷者 30 歲前結婚的比例明顯較高；到了 2018 年，「40 歲出頭的高中以下學歷女性當中，已婚者只占二分之一多，而 40 歲出頭的學士學歷女性，已婚者則占四分之三。」
陳教授認為，這種趨勢與不具大學學歷者的高薪工作減少有關，累積財富的機會減少，他們就更不容易建立較穩定的關係。柯漢確實也在其論文寫道，婚姻「是社會不平等結構當中愈趨顯著的核心要點」。當前的婚姻現況，不僅呈現出大學學歷創造了財務獨立的契機，也突顯了高學歷夫妻收入相加後，匯聚成一股拉開貧富差距的力量。
所以，光是觀察已婚伴侶的情形，尚不足以掌握美國人婚姻關係的實際本質。切爾林說：「假如把同居關係 (跟婚姻關係) 一起算進來，年輕人和伴侶分開的比例或許並沒有下降。」也就表示：對，離婚率是下降了沒有錯，但是與其說這現象代表美國夫妻關係趨向穩定，不如說這些數字只有反映出已婚者的樣貌。
What's changed isn't marriage, but the types of people who are likeliest to get married.
Since 2008, the percentage of American marriages that end in divorce has fallen, and in this paper, the University of Maryland sociologist Philip Cohen has quantified the drop-off: Between 2008 and 2016, the divorce rate declined by 18 percent overall.
After accounting for the rising average age of married Americans and other demographic shifts during that time, Cohen found "a less steep decline—8 percent—but the pattern is the same." That is, the divorce rate in 2016 was still lower than one would have predicted if the demographics of married people were the same then as in 2008.
When I asked Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University, how to make sense of this trend, he opened his explanation with something of a koan: "In order to get divorced," he said, "you have to get married first."
The point he was making was that people with college degrees are now more likely to get married than those who have no more than a high-school education. And the key to understanding the declining divorce rate, Cherlin says, is that it is "going down some for everybody," but "the decline has been steepest for the college graduates."
The reason that's the case is that college graduates tend to wait longer to get married as they focus on their career. And they tend to have the financial independence to postpone marriage until they're more confident it will work. This has translated to lower rates of divorce: "If you're older, you're more mature … you probably have a better job, and those things make it less likely that you'll get into arguments with your spouse," Cherlin says.
Divorce rates had been increasing since the mid-1800s, in part because of what Cherlin described as "a gradual growth in the sense that it was okay to end a marriage if you're unhappy." Divorces spiked after World War II, peaking in 1980.
Cherlin says that in the late 1970s, when he received his Ph.D., it was widely expected among researchers that the divorce rate would continue to rise. But it hasn't, and what's behind this unforeseen development is the decline of marriage—and the corresponding rise of cohabitation—among Americans with less education. As the sociologist Victor Chen wrote for The Atlantic, those without college degrees were a few decades ago significantly likelier to be married by age 30 than were those with college degrees. In 2018, Chen notes, "just over half of women in their early 40s with a high-school degree or less education are married, compared to three-quarters of women with a bachelor's degree."
Chen connects this trend to the decline of well-paying jobs for those without college degrees, which, he argues, makes it harder to form more stable relationships. Indeed, Cohen writes in his paper that marriage is "an increasingly central component of the structure of social inequality." The state of it today is both a reflection of the opportunities unlocked by a college degree and a force that, by allowing couples to pool their incomes, itself widens economic gaps.
So, looking at married couples alone doesn't capture the true nature of American partnerships today. "If you were to include cohabiting relationships [in addition to marriages], the breakup rates for young adults have probably not been going down," Cherlin says. In other words: Yes, divorce rates are declining. But that's more a reflection of who's getting married than of the stability of any given American couple.
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